How Climate Change Might Spell Doom to Puerto Rico’s Coffee Industry
I remember when I was about five years old my grandfather gave me my first cup of coffee, much to the anger of my mother who had to take care of a caffeine-juiced five-year-old. Up to that point I had always seen my grandfather drink coffee with what seemed to be every meal. Here I am fifteen years later, and I could not be more grateful for that moment. Coffee has become one of the most beloved drinks in my life, not because of the ability it has to wake me up, but because of how delicious I find it. In the end, I think it has always come down to a cultural thing. Being from Puerto Rico, it was ingrained in my grandfather and now it’s ingrained in me, but it seems that Puerto Rican coffee may be facing a challenge it might not be able to overcome.
In a study done last year by the USDA, researchers developed a model for the future of climatic suitability for coffee farming in Puerto Rico. They did this using current climatic data to predict three different scenarios for the suitability to grow coffee in Puerto Rico. Coffee is a very climate-specific crop and even slight changes in climate such as temperature, annual rainfall, among other factors, could spell disaster for many coffee farms. The coffee grown in Puerto Rico requires temperatures between 64° and 72° Fahrenheit with annual rainfall between 75 and 100 inches in order to be able to achieve the quality that is expected from Puerto Rico’s signature coffee arabica.
A Bit of Background
Coffee has always been one of the most culturally and economically important crops produced in Puerto Rico. Since approximately 1736, coffee has been present in Puerto Rico as one of its most significant crops. At the height of its production in 1899, Puerto Rio was the world’s sixth largest producer of coffee. Not only was the coffee revered for its high quality in the market but also, unknown at the time, very environmentally friendly. The practice of using shade coffee cultivation played an important part in providing bio-sanctuaries for a diverse group of plants and animal species to thrive. The shift of Puerto Rico from a Spanish territory to an American territory at the start of the 20th century greatly affected potential markets and the Puerto Rican industry suffered a major hit. Looking to improve the economy, coffee came roaring back to life in the 70’s with the use of agrochemicals, intensive sun farming, and mass production. Slowly but surely, coffee made its way back into Puerto Rico’s central economy. It once again took a major hit after Hurricane George hit in 1998. This hurricane destroyed much of the industry’s infrastructure and left farms in shambles. Coffee farmers slowly and sometimes futilely tried to revive the industry. The lack of available resources, economically and socially speaking, the industry has had a rough time in the last twenty years.
Three Scenarios
The study produced three scenarios for Puerto Rico’s coffee industry for the remainder of the 21st century, a best-case scenario, an average scenario, and a worst-case scenario.
The study showed that Puerto Rico is predicted to lose 21% of its suitable coffee farming land by 2040 under their base-case scenario. Under a worst-case scenario, Puerto Rico is projected to lose almost half (47%) of their suitable coffee farming land. After 2040, all scenarios project drastic losses in a suitable farming land for coffee. By 2070, Puerto Rico might lose 60% of suitable farming land under the best-case scenario and up to 84% of suitable farming land under the worst-case scenario. Climate models also predict that by 2040 Puerto Rico’s temperature will rise to levels too high to be able to cultivate the high-quality Arabica coffee the island’s industry is known for and may have to switch to genetically-modified coffee plants to counteract the climate changes predicted by the study.
These genetically-modified coffee plants may be able to keep the industry producing a form of high-quality coffee until 2070. However, after 2070 temperatures may rise so high that only the best-case scenario may Puerto Rico be able to continue cultivating coffee at all. So what can Puerto Rican farmers do to combat the impending changes in climate? The researchers suggested the following in their study:
Incorporating the traditional method of shade farming. This form of farming has been proven to lower temperatures experienced by the coffee plants by up to 2° Celsius. This has also been proven to decrease soil runoff and erosion and protect the plants from strong winds and heavy rain. Finally, it also allows for contributions to biodiversity, insect control, and pollination.
Industry subsidies and educational programs toward coffee farming practices need to be implemented to promote climate-smart, environmentally friendly coffee farming and allow for continued profitability.
Innovation by coffee farmers to combat labor shortages. Cases have already been seen where mechanized harvesters and terracing has been observed on the island.
Looking to the future
Building a sustainable and climate-smart coffee farming system in Puerto Rico may provide a much-needed economic boost to the island. Efforts to do so must also be done while taking into account the significant risks posed by climate change in the future. Global rises in temperatures are currently trending towards the worst-case scenario that was mentioned before and a crucial tipping point may come by 2070 where the Puerto Rican coffee industry might completely disappear.
As negative as that may sound, Puerto Rican farmers have always been accustomed to facing both economic and environmental challenges since the inception of the industry back in 1736. This new climatic challenge will require a great amount of dedication and effort to tackle and will require a great level of both public and private cooperation.
Final Note
This study was conducted before both Hurricanes Irma and Maria devastated the island in September 2017. Currently, it is not known what remains of infrastructure for the industry and it probably has surpassed the damage that was caused by Hurricane George back in 1998. It will be interesting to see how the Puerto Rican coffee industry can surpass not only the challenge of climate change but also the disastrous damage brought by last year’s hurricane season.
The findings of this study were published online on April 7th, 2017 in Climatic Change.